FX Update: Emerging market trading ideas for the week ahead
Potential trading ideas for the coming week are in emerging market currencies. The technical picture is turning peso-supportive with the post-NFP sell-off having confirmed the overall USDMXN downtrend....
View ArticleHedge Funds turn net long of EUR and AUD short reaches new record
Hedge Funds turned net-long of EUR during the week ending August 6 according to data from the CFTC. Changes in positioning among the other seven IMM currencies were relativey light although some...
View ArticleDollar sold against most IMM currencies again last week
Hedge funds were net sellers of dollars against most IMM currency futures during the week ending August 13. This was the fourth week in a row of net dollar selling which primarily benefited the EUR and...
View ArticleIMM EUR net-long position at two-year high
Money managers were net-buyers of EUR for a sixth week during the week ending August 20. This resulted in the gross dollar long falling by USD 4.3 billion to USD 12 billion, the lowest level of dollar...
View ArticleFX Update: Mexican peso still the darling of Latin America
The Mexican peso's status as the sweetheart of Latin America currencies looks set to continue. Fundamentals and technicals both suggest yet more near-term strengthening as it rides the wave of a relief...
View ArticleEUR net-long at 26-month high just before the correction began
Hedge funds lifted their bullish bets on the EUR currency futures to a 26-month high during the week ending August 27. The aggregate dollar long position managed to rise for the first time in six weeks...
View ArticleDollar net-bought for a second week, especially against the EUR
Money managers were net buyers of dollars for a second week during the week ending September 3. All of the eight IMM currency futures apart from CHF covered in this report were net-sold, primarily the...
View ArticleDollar longs rising as EUR and JPY selling offsets AUD buying
Money managers were net-buyers of dollars for a third week in a row as of September 10. Dollars were bought at the expense of EUR and especially JPY with AUD and GBP short covering being another theme.
View ArticlePeso hopes for FOMC 'light' taper as USDMXN sees bearish reversal
The Mexican peso is still very much top of the tree among emerging market currencies but there will be some nerves ahead of the FOMC Wednesday as USDMXN is now displaying signs of a double top formation.
View ArticleAttractive emerging market trade set-ups in post-FOMC rush
Following yesterday's FOMC event that proved to be the best case scenario in terms of short to medium-term risk appetite in the emerging currency universe, we look at potential trading setups for the...
View ArticleHedge funds ditched dollar pre-FOMC in favour of EUR, AUD & GBP
Spooked by the continued lowering of tapering expectations, hedge funds ditched the US dollar ahead of the FOMC announcement last Wednesday. All IMM currencies apart from the Mexican peso were bought...
View ArticleEUR net-long doubled last week - highest since May 2011
Hedge Funds were strong buyers of EUR currency futures following the FOMC decision not to taper its asset purchase programme. During the week ending September 24 they doubled their EUR exposure as the...
View ArticleEM Focus: Has the Mexican peso lost its lustre?
With the Mexican peso facing pressures both from the forces of nature as well as the US budgetary impasse, we revisit the cross to map out both the fundamental as well as the technical picture.
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade Portfolios (week 42)
Our new Saxo Bank FX Carry Trade model is ready to assume its first portfolio positions.
View ArticleEM Focus: Mexican peso rises as taper delay looks likely
With the Mexican peso staging a significant rally against the US in the aftermath of the US fiscal agreement, we revisit the cross both from a fundamental as well as a technical vantage point.
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 44)
The Saxo FX Carry Trade got off to a poor start as strong performances from the euro and the Swiss franc condemned our USD-denominated World Carry tracking portfolio to a 2.4 percent loss in the first...
View ArticleEM Focus: Rand in need of a South African economic rebalancing
With the South African rand underperforming both against the majors as well as its peer group currencies, we revisit both the troubled South African fundamentals and the technical picture in USDZAR.
View ArticleThe market is sending a warning signal....
USD vs. BRL and MXN is much like May and sending early warning signals that something is about to happen—or could happen—in US interest rates. The sharp moves today indicate a sooner pricing of...
View ArticleEM Focus: Mexican peso holds its breath ahead of NFP data
We revisit the fundamental and technical picture for USDMXN ahead of this Friday's key US non-farm payrolls data, as the currency pair sees trading consolidate above the 13.00 handle.
View ArticleCFTC: Strongest dollar buying since Feb as euro is dumped
Hedge funds more than halved their exposure to the euro during the week of November 5 as euro area disinflation talk triggered a dramatic shift back in favour of the dollar with all but one of the...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 46)
The weak start to our tracked carry trade portfolio continues with the short USDZAR position taking the lead as the largest negative contributor. Overall, the portfolio was down 1.3 percent in the...
View ArticleHedge funds bought dollars at the expense of JPY, EUR and AUD
Dollar in demand: The dollar position more than doubled to USD 13.3 billion on continued JPY and AUD selling while the overextended net-long position in EUR continued to be adjusted lower.
View ArticleHedge funds the most short of JPY currency futures since 2007
Hedge funds were net buyers of US dollars in the week ending November 19, primarily at the expense of EUR and especially JPY where the net-short rose to its highest since July 2007. AUD and CAD were...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 48)
Our tracked Saxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolio returned 4.3 percent in the last two weeks, driven by strong performance by the South African rand vis-à-vis the US dollar.
View ArticleUSD bought for a fifth week — JPY short at new six-year high
Money managers were net buyers of US dollars for a fifth week in a row as of November 26. The biggest changes hit the EUR which moved back to neutral and the JPY where the net-short reached a new...
View ArticleCFTC: JPY net short reaching new extremes
Money managers were busy moving positions around last week according to the latest weekly update on speculative positioning in IMM currency futures. The EUR and GBP were bought while the JPY short...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 50)
The Saxo FX Carry Trade suffered in early December as the US dollar strengthened against the South African rand and Turkish lira. Furthermore the Swiss franc did quite well against the dollar,...
View ArticleCAD sold, EUR bought during week of dollar selling
Hedge funds were net-sellers of dollars during the week of December 10. Of the eight IMM currency futures, six were bought against the dollar, especially the EUR and CHF while only the CAD and AUD were...
View ArticleCFTC: Hedge funds add to EUR longs, sells other currencies
Hedge funds continued to move back into EUR while the other IMM currency futures were net sold during the week to December 17. The JPY short remains by far the biggest position continuing a prevalent...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 52)
The World Carry portfolio has lost 0.8 percent in the two weeks ending today, driven primarily by a surge in the USDTRY pair, which has gained 2.7 percent carry-adjusted. The portfolio is down 3.1...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 2)
The first change in our portfolios since inception takes place today as the Turkish lira has been ignored due to too high volatility. The lira also contributed to another poor couple of weeks of...
View ArticleHedge funds halved EUR and CHF longs as of January 7
Hedge funds were net buyers of dollar during the week of January 7. Both EUR and CHF had their net longs more than halved. The JPY net-short remains by far the single biggest exposure but was reduced...
View ArticleAUDUSD swoons to new low on jobs report; GBPUSD eyes support
AUDUSD traded at its lowest levels since 2010 on a very weak jobs report. Meanwhile, GBPUSD and the other USD/Europe majors need more follow through for better confirmation of the greenback’s rally.
View ArticleCOT Report: Increased appetite for dollars and yen
Hedge funds were net buyers of dollars against five out of eight IMM currency futures during the week of January 14. The JPY was bought for a third week in a row as short covering continued.
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios (week 4)
A successful omission of the Turkish lira was not enough to halt the decline in the emerging market-driven performance of the USD-denominated World Carry portfolio, which lost two percent in the...
View ArticleHedge funds bought USD against AUD and EUR just ahead of the drop
Hedge funds bought USD ahead of the slump, according to the latest figures from the Commitment of Traders report, which covers speculative positioning in eight IMM currency futures during the week of...
View ArticleSaxo Bank FX Carry Trade portfolios: EM bloodbath edition
The USD-denominated World Carry portfolio has taken a massive hit of 5.8 percent, driven mostly by strength in USDZAR and USDHUF.
View ArticleCOT update: USD longs cut by 30% on strong EUR and JPY buying
Hedge funds in IMM currency futures are struggling to find the right position at the beginning of the year. The week of January 28 was no exception as renewed dollar weakness triggered a 30 percent cut...
View ArticleHedge funds' EUR-short hits 7-month high just before the bounce
Hedge funds continue to be frustrated by the constant change in the direction of the EUR. The week ending February 4 was no exception with hedge funds turning the most bearish on the EUR since last...
View ArticleCOT: EUR bought for a second week but remained short against USD
Hedge funds were net sellers of 1.5 billion dollars against eight IMM currency futures during the week of February 11. EUR and AUD were bought while JPY was sold again after six weeks of buying.
View ArticleSaxo FX carry trade portfolios: ZAR heads comeback, of sorts
The South African rand led the charges in February sending the USD-denominated World Carry portfolio up by 1.5 percent. The portfolio drawdown, however, remains substantial.
View ArticleHedge funds selling USD in favour of EUR and GBP
Hedge funds were net sellers of dollars during the week of February 18, primarily due to continued buying of EUR and GBP. Sellers returned to the JPY for a second week albeit in small amounts.
View ArticleCOT: A third week of broad-based dollar selling
Hedge funds speculating in currency movements through futures were net sellers of dollars again during the week of February 25. Seven currencies were bought led by EUR and GBP while the recent...
View ArticleSaxo FX carry trade portfolios: Ukraine leaves a mark
Saxo's USD-denominated World Carry portfolio lost 1.6 percent in the two weeks ending today with the crisis in Ukraine dragging the portfolio down.
View ArticleCOT: EUR exposure rising at the expense of USD
Hedge funds using IMM currency futures were net sellers of dollars during the week of March 4. The EUR was bought ahead of the ECB-sponsored rally two days later, while the GBP net long reached a...
View ArticleCOT: Strong EUR buying at the expense of JPY
Hedge funds reduced their exposure the dollar during the week of March 11. Six out of eight IMM currency futures were net bought, not least the EUR. Renewed selling of JPY pointed towards some activity...
View ArticleSaxo FX carry trade portfolios: Euro and Swiss franc fight back
Strong showings by the euro and Swiss franc were enough to condemn theUSD-denominated World Carry portfolio to another bi-weekly loss of 0.6 percent. There are no changes to any of the four reference...
View ArticleHedge funds dumped the dollar ahead of last week's FOMC meeting
Hedge funds were major sellers of dollars against seven IMM currency futures during the week of March 18. EUR longs rose and JPY shorts were cut while geopolitical worries saw the CHF position rise to...
View ArticleCOT: Strong week for CAD at the expense of EUR, JPY
Hedge funds and money managers triggered the largest one-week increase in IMM CAD position in 21 years during the week of March 25. The impact on the overall dollar position was limited as the strong...
View ArticleSaxo FX carry trade portfolios: Turkish lira powers comeback
The portfolio came roaring back in the last two weeks of March, recording a best-ever bi-weekly return of 6.2 percent. Cumulative return remains unimpressive at -8.7 percent, however. There are no...
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